Wednesday, December 12, 2012

2012 Gus Rankings: Bowl Edition

Want to know how Gus would perform in a bowl pick-em pool?  So do we.  Here's how he'd pick his winners and assign his confidence points.  (The final Gus Rankings are here, which incorporate last weekend's Army/Navy game.)  Confidence points are assigned in parenthesis by virtue of the difference in points in the Gus Rankings.  For games with the same difference in points, confidence points are then assigned by difference in ranking.  If that was the same, then the game with the higher ranked pair received more confidence (Gus is decidedly risk-preferring).  And Syracuse and West Virginia have the exact same record and the exact same number of points...so Gus claimed his Mountaineer roots for the last confidence wager.

Addendum: By request, here are the final conference rankings:

1. SEC: 17.43
2. Big 12: 12.30
3. Big 10: 9.00
4. Pac-12: 8.25
5. Big East: 1.75
6. ACC: -3.25
7. MAC: -7.95
8. WAC: -8.43
9. MWC: -10.40
10. Sun Belt: -10.50
11. C-USA: -19.33


New Mexico

Nevada vs. Arizona Winner: Arizona (29)
Potato


Toledo vs. Utah State Winner: Utah State (9)
Poinsietta


San Diego State vs. BYU Winner: San Diego State (26)
St. Petersburg


Ball State vs. UCF Winner: Ball State (18)
New Orleans


East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette (10)
Las Vegas


Boise State vs. Washington Winner: Boise State (21)
Hawaii


SMU vs. Fresno State Winner: Fresno State (33)
Little Caesars


Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan Winner: Western Kentucky (17)
Military


San Jose State vs. Bowling Green Winner: San Jose State (32)
Belk


Duke vs. Cincinnati Winner: Cincinnati (30)
Holiday


UCLA vs. Baylor Winner: UCLA (22)
Independence


Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio Winner: Louisiana-Monroe (13)
Russell Athletic


Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers Winner: Rutgers (28)
Texas


Minnesota vs. Texas Tech Winner: Texas Tech (23)
Armed Forces


Rice vs. Air Force Winner: Air Force (8)
Fight Hunger


Arizona State vs. Navy Winner: Navy (24)
Pinstripe


Syracuse vs. West Virginia Winner: West Virginia (1)
Alamo


Texas vs. Oregon State Winner: Oregon State (15)
Buffalo Wild Wings


Michigan State vs. TCU Winner: Michigan State (11)
Music City


Vanderbilt vs. NC State Winner: Vanderbilt (19)
Sun


Georgia Tech vs. USC Winner: USC (27)
Liberty


Iowa State vs. Tulsa Winner: Tulsa (31)
Chick-fil-A


Clemson vs. LSU Winner: LSU (12)
Heart of Dallas


Purdue vs. Oklahoma State Winner: Oklahoma State (25)
Gator


Mississippi State vs. Northwestern Winner: Northwestern (14)
Capital One


Georgia vs. Nebraska Winner: Nebraska (7)
Outback


South Carolina vs. Michigan Winner: South Carolina (16)
Rose


Wisconsin vs. Stanford Winner: Stanford (35)
Orange


Northern Illinois vs. Florida State Winner: Northern Illinois (2)
Sugar


Florida vs. Louisville Winner: Florida (34)
Fiesta


Oregon vs. Kansas State Winner: Oregon (3)
Cotton


Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma Winner: Oklahoma (5)
Compass


Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi Winner: Pittsburgh (4)
GoDaddy.com


Kent State vs. Arkansas State Winner: Kent State (6)
BCS Championship


Notre Dame vs. Alabama Winner: Notre Dame (20)       

Monday, December 03, 2012

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 14

Here are the final Gus Rankings of the year.  (Army plays Navy next week but that should have no bearing on either end of the rankings.)  Notre Dame maintains a stranglehold on the top spot.  Stanford, Florida, Ohio State and Alabama round out the top 5.  Notre Dame claims the Gus National Title easily with a win over Alabama in the National Championship Game, though also has a fair chance to claim the GNT even with a loss to Alabama depending on how the remaining bowl games shake out.  A Florida win over Louisville presents the strongest threat to Notre Dame's top spot.  We shall see how it all shakes out!

On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico State claims their own national title-- Gus' Worst Team in America.  New Mexico State edged out Southern Mississippi over the last weekend; perennial favorites Akron and Massachusetts finished just behind the Aggies.

As these are the final Gus Rankings, Gus would have the BCS as follows:

National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champions)
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big 10 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. San Jose State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Louisville (Big East champion)

The National Title Game features the top two teams, Notre Dame and Stanford (technically, Stanford and Florida are tied-- if you put Florida in the title game, simply swap Florida for Stanford).  As Stanford is the Pac-12 winner, the Rose Bowl gets first choice in replacing them and the highest remaining team is Florida.  They would face Wisconsin, automatic qualifiers from the Big 10.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the next choice of teams.  Kansas State, champions of the Big 12, automatically qualify.  The next highest remaining eligible team is Oregon at #6.  Alabama automatically makes the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions; the Sugar Bowl is left to choose between two other automatic qualifiers-- Louisville as Big East champions, and...San Jose State!  (Gus overlooked the Spartans last week on the incorrect assumption that a non-BCS-conference automatic qualifier needed to be a conference champion.  No such requirement exists.)  Everyone knows Northern Illinois' story by now, and they do finish at #16 in the final Gus Rankings...but San Jose State outpaces them at #14, and both teams are well ahead of Big 10 champion Wisconsin (#37) and Big East champion Louisville (#29).  SJSU, as the highest remaining eligible team, heads to the Sugar Bowl.  That leaves the Orange Bowl with Florida State (ACC champions) and Louisville.

Next week, we'll update the rankings to capture Army/Navy and pick the winners of every bowl game.